Tony Soprano and Ukraine

One of the mainstays of the business model of organized crime is the protection racket. They walk into to your place of business and announce that, unless you pay up, they will make sure that certain things happen. Such is what's happening in Ukraine right now, at least that's how the Obama administration is viewing it.

The "Ukraine" shop sits on the corner of Europe and Asia. That location is, essentially, the dividing line between two neighborhoods. It's a very good location with lots of traffic. It does a lot of business with customers from both neighborhoods and, for the most part, their customers are happy. However, there is one, very large, customer named "Russia", who wants to be able to tell the "owners" of the "Ukraine" shop how to run their business. He believes that he is entitled to this because he is a large customer with lots of friends who do business there. He also USED to OWN the "Ukraine" shop until it was "taken" away from him. He even had to provide financing for the transaction and he is still not happy about that.

So, in the finest traditions of Tony Soprano, he decides the make them an offer! Now, the "Ukraine" shop is not nearly as well off as it's biggest customer. In many respects they rely on this customer. So when "Russia" says "You know, you bought this shop with a loan from me. You need to do what I say or else!", what are the "Ukraine" shop's owners supposed to do? If they don't bow to their customer's demands, "Russia" is going to burn down "Ukraine"'s shop. So "Ukraine" does the logical thing. He contacts his very powerful and rich friend, "USA", and explains the situation. "USA" says "Don't worry, friend. We'll take care of this. "Russia is reasonable and knows we aren't to be trifled with!".

So "USA" calls "Russia" and says "Hey, Russia, you don't want to do this. Ukraine is our friend and if you keep pushing him around, we might have to get involved. And you know how strong we are. Back off!". "Russia" replies..."We'll do whatever we want in our neighborhood and you can't stop us. You are neither strong enough to stop us here and nor will you do the things you say you can do because you don't have the guts to do it! You are a paper tiger!". So "USA" says "Don't make us get our other friend, "UN" involved because we will!". "Go ahead, says "Russia", because they are even more impotent than you and we have friends in that neighborhood that agree with us."

Now, what is "Ukraine" supposed to do? The can't resist the 'offer' from "Russia". And their rich friend, "USA", can't do anything because their bluff was called? Well, then "USA" says "Let's do what we always do....pay them off! You owe them $1 billion so we'll pay it off for you and then they'll love us and stop messing with you!".

Ask yourself one question.....when Tony Soprano got money one time, did he stop going back in the future or did he decide that this is a pretty good thing here. Maybe I'll try it on that shop next door called "Belarus"...or "Romania"...or "Lithuania"...or "Latvia".

Congratulations, Vladimir, Tony Soprano would be proud!